Application of Delphi method to forecasting of information activity development

Abstract

During the past few years the development of forecasting methods, based on experts' knowledge and intuition, is being noticed. One of such methods is — among others — ,,the Delphi technique". There have been discussed somé features which characterize it as the method of future forecasting, certain basic principles of its application have been gjven, and the attention has been paid to its advantages and disadvantages, as well as to its elasticity in practical utilization. This method has been successfully employed a number of times abroad for forecasting of information activity development. Based on the example of prognosis made at the Institute for Scientific, Technical and Economic Information there have been presented somé applications of Delphi method to recognition of formation in the year 2000 of the basic information activity elements in Poland. The obtained results have been shortly characterized.