Variation of the half-life of literature cited in science journals in the period of the publication explosion

Abstract

A critical re-examination is presented of the theory of information science quantjfying the obsolescence of scientiftc literature and of the notion of the half-life of literature as the basic indicator of obsolescence adapted from atomic physics, moreover of the opinion widely spread in modern information conscious science and society asserting the rapid decrease of the numerical value of this indicator owing to the information explosion of our days. This re-examination is carried out at the macro-level of science journals, at the meso-level of geographic journals and at the micro-level of individual articles and citations from the point of view of formai statistics as well as of that of content and informatics, observing the matter both from static and dynamic aspects. At the same time, a revision of the adaptive introduction of the concept of the half-line of literature is given both from epistemological and scientific-theoretical point of view. The paper contains the results of statistical investigations into the dynamics of the half-life of literature made at the macro-level of citations in science journals of 1939 and 1969. The results unequivocally refute the validity of the obsolescence theory of information science and of the concept of half-life asan indicator of obsolescence; they disprove the acceptability of the unverified and fetishized „scientific" pretensions mentioned above. The results have been checked by a decisive sampling-test involving articles of 40 years (1934-1974) in a homogenous medium of publication, proving the validity of the negative conclusions in a manner, which correctly satisfies the requirements of the theory of verification.